Africa: 5 Innovations that will Electrify Africa in the Next Decade, April 29, 2015.
Gesper Mndeme is a 31-year old farmer, father, and part-time business student in Tanzania. He used to stumble through the pre-dawn darkness by way of a flickering candle to prepare the morning meal for himself and his daughter, Sunny. A kerosene flame from an old water bottle lit their 200-square-foot hut while emitting plumes of toxic smoke. Now for less than the $1 he used to spend daily on kerosene and candles, he and his daughter enjoy two LED lights, a cell-phone charger, and a radio. The soft sound of local Tanzanian rhythms fills the moist morning air as he prepares cassava and vegetables.
Worldwide, 1.3 billion people live without access to electricity, while another 1 billion experience significant rolling blackouts. Nearly 97% of them live in Sub-Saharan Africa and developing Asia, and lack of reliable electricity creates a massive drain on education, manufacturing, and retail. More than 50 percent of businesses in Sub-Saharan Africa identify electricity as a major constraint to their operation compared with just 27 % citing transportation.
But that will soon change. The confluence of five dynamics will electrify the continent within a decade. These include the rapidly declining price of solar energy, increased battery capacity per dollar, the proliferation of mobile phone commerce, innovative consumer finance techniques, and creative for-profit business models.
Here’s a look at each:
1. Cheaper solar electricity. Swanson’s Law, which states that solar cell prices fall 20% for every doubling in industry capacity, is finally beginning to play out. Lower prices for solar panels in the developed world make this renewable energy competitive with electricity. This competitiveness fuels a virtuous cycle of increased spending on R&D, which further decreases panel prices.
The price per watt of solar electricity has decreased 44% since the end of 2011, and all trends point to even lower costs with economies of scale. Sub-Saharan Africa is ideal for solar energy, as it receives more solar radiation than almost anywhere else in the world. Lack of infrastructure and ineffective public energy bureaucracies make it unlikely that the 85% of Africans off the national grids will ever connect to them. Just as cell phones displaced landlines in the developing world, solar energy will bring electricity to the masses, displacing kerosene and candles.
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